Implosion Stocks Bricks & Mortars California Daydreams Canada Mota & Rori Commercial Real Estate Companies & Markets Consumer Credit Bubble Cryptocurrency Energy Fed Housing Bubble Europe 2 Inflation & Devaluation Japan Jobs
Maererano nepepa revhiki nevhiki rakabudiswa nhasi, Fed yakarasikirwa ne $ 532 bhiriyoni muzvinhu kubva pakukwirira kwayo muna Kubvumbi, kuunza hupfumi hwese ku $ 8.43 trillion, yakaderera kubva munaSeptember 2021. Zvichienzaniswa nebhadharo mwedzi yapfuura (yakabudiswa January 5), midziyo yese yakadzikira nemabhiriyoni makumi manomwe nemana emadhora.
Kubva pakakwirira mukutanga kwaJune, iyo Fed's Holdings yeUS Treasuries yadonha $374 bhiriyoni kusvika $5.34 tiririyoni, iyo yakaderera nhanho kubva munaGunyana 2021. Mumwedzi wapfuura, iyo Fed's Holdings muUS Treasuries yadonha $60.4 bhiriyoni, pamusoro peiyo $60 bhiriyoni sirin'i.
Mari yekubhadhara mari uye zvisungo zvakanyorwa kubva pabhanhire repakati uye pakupera kwemwedzi, apo Fed inogamuchira chiso chavo. Muganho wepamwedzi wekudzorera imadhora mabhiriyoni makumi matanhatu.
Kubva pakakwirira, Fed yakacheka madhora mabhiriyoni zana negumi neshanu ezvayakabata muMBS, kusanganisira madhora bhiriyoni gumi nemanomwe mumwedzi wapfuura, zvichiunza iyo yese chiyero pasi kusvika kumadhora mazana maviri nemakumi matanhatu emadhora.
Huwandu hwese hweMBS hwakabviswa pabalance sheet mwedzi wega wega kubva pakuvambwa kweQT hwave pasi pedenga remadhora mabhiriyoni makumi matatu nemashanu.
MBS inonyangarika kubva pabalance sheet sebasa rekupfuura-kuburikidza nekubhadhara kukuru kunogamuchirwa nevose vanobata kana vachibhadhara chikwereti chemba, sekubhadhara chikwereti chemba kana kutengesa imba yemba, pamwe chete nekubhadhara mari yemba.
Sezvo mitengo yemba yemba yakakwira kubva pa3% kusvika pa6%, vanhu vachiri kubhadhara zvikwereti, asi mari dzemumba dzadzikira, kutengeswa kwedzimba kwadzikira, uye kuyerera kwekubhadhara kukuru kwanyangarika.
Kutamiswa kwemubhadharo mukuru kunoderedza chiyero cheMBS, sezvinoratidzwa neinodzika zigzag mune chati iri pazasi.
Kukwira kumusoro pachati kwakatanga apo Fed yakanga ichiri kutenga MBS, asi pakati paSeptember tsika yakasviba iyi yakamiswa zvachose uye kukwira kumusoro pachati kwakanyangarika.
Isu tichiri kumirira chero chiratidzo kubva kuFed kuti iri kufunga zvakanyanya kutengesa MBS zvachose kuunza iyo pamwedzi rollover muganho kumadhora 35 bhiriyoni. Pamutengo wazvino, anofanirwa kutengesa pakati pemadhora mabhiriyoni gumi nemashanu nemadhora makumi maviri pamwedzi kuti asvike chivharo. Magavhuna mazhinji eFed akataura kuti Fed inogona kupedzisira yaenda munzira iyoyo.
Ziva muchati iri pamusoro kuti muna 2019 na2020, MBS yakaenda pachiyero chepamusoro-cheisiling sezvo mitengo yembavha yakaderera, zvichikonzera kuwedzera kwekubhadhara mari nekutengesa dzimba. QT-1 yakapera muna Chikunguru 2019 asi MBS yakaramba ichidzikira kusvika Kukadzi 2020 apo Fed yakaitsiva neUS Treasuries uye bheji rayo rakatanga kusimuka zvakare muna Nyamavhuvhu 2019 sezvakaratidzwa pachati iri pamusoro.
Fed yakataura kakawanda kuti haidi kuve neMBS pamari yayo, pamwe nekuti mari inoyerera haina fungidziro uye haina kuenzana zvekuti zvinokanganisa mutemo wemari, uye pamwe nekuti kuve neMBS kungakanganisa chikamu chakazvimirira Chikwereti (chikwereti cheimba) chakakwira kupfuura. mamwe marudzi echikwereti chebato rakazvimirira. Ndosaka isu tichikurumidza kuona imwe yakakomba kutaura nezve kutengeswa kwakananga kweMBS.
Maprimiyamu asina kubhadharwa akadonha mabhiriyoni matatu emadhora pamwedzi, achidonhedza mabhiriyoni makumi mana nemashanu emadhora kubva pakakwirira muna Mbudzi 2021 kusvika pamadhora mazana matatu nemakumi matatu nerimwe.
Ichi chii? Pazvibatiso zvakatengwa neFederal Reserve mumusika wechipiri, kana goho remusika riri pazasi pecoupon rate yezvibatiso, Federal Reserve, sevamwe vese, inofanirwa kubhadhara "premium" inodarika kukosha kwechiso. Asi kana zvisungo zvakura, iyo Fed, sevamwe vese, inobhadharwa nemutengo wakatarisana. Mune mamwe mazwi, mukuchinjana nemari yepamusoro-kupfuura-yemusika makuponi, pachave nekurasikirwa kwemari pamutengo weprimiyamu kana bond yakura.
Panzvimbo yekurekodha kurasikirwa kwemari kana chisungo chakura, iyo Fed inobhadhara mari yacho muzvikamu zvidiki vhiki yega yega pamusoro pehupenyu hwechisungo. Iyo Fed inochengeta iyo yasara premium mune yakaparadzana account.
Central bank liquidity swaps. Fed yakagara iine mitsetse yekuchinjana nemamwe mabhanga makuru epakati apo mabhanga epakati anogona kuchinjana mari yavo neFed yemadhora kuburikidza ne swaps maturing pane imwe nguva yakatarwa (taura mazuva manomwe), mushure mokunge Fed inowana mari yavo zvakare. madhora, uye rimwe bhanga guru rinobvisa mari yaro. Ikozvino kune $427 miriyoni mune yakatanhamara swaps (ine tsamba M):
"Basic chikwereti" - Discount hwindo. Mushure mekukwira kwechiyero nezuro, Fed yakachaja mabhanga 4.75% pagore yekukweretesa mu "discount window". Saka inodhura mari yekubhangi. Kana vakakwanisa kukwezva vanochengetedza, vanogona kukwereta mari yakachipa. Saka kudiwa kwekukwereta mufafitera rekudzikisira nemitengo yakakwira zvakadaro inokatyamadza.
Chikwereti chekutanga chakatanga kukwira rinenge gore rapfuura, kusvika pamadhora gumi emadhora pakupera kwaMbudzi 2021, iyo ichiri yakaderera. Pakati paNdira, Federal Reserve Bank yeNew York yakaburitsa blog post yakanzi "Kukura Kwezvino muKukweretesa Kwemari." Haana kudoma mazita, asi akataura kuti mazhinji emabhangi madiki akange ave kusvika pahwindo rekudzikisira uye kuti kuomeswa kwehuwandu kunogona kunge kwakaderedza zvinzvimbo zvavo zvekushandisa.
Asi kukwereta muhwindo rekudzikisira kwakadzikira kubva muna Mbudzi uye kuri pamadhora mazana mana nemazana manomwe emadhora nhasi. Ingozvitevedzera:
Kubata hombe kweFed kwezvibatiso kazhinji muchina wekuita mari. Vachiripo, asi gore rapfuura yakatanga kubhadhara mubereko wepamusoro - payakatanga kukwidza mitengo - pamari iyo mabhanga akaiswa neFed ("matura") uye kazhinji Treasury mari yemusika mari kuburikidza nehusiku reverse repurchase zvibvumirano (RRP). Kubva munaGunyana, iyo Fed yatanga kubhadhara mubereko wakawanda pane zvakachengetwa uye RRP kupfuura pazvibatiso zvayo.
Iyo Fed yakarasikirwa nemadhora 18.8 bhiriyoni kubva munaGunyana kusvika Zvita 31, asi yakawana madhora 78 bhiriyoni kubva muna Ndira kusvika Nyamavhuvhu, saka ichiri kuwana 58.4 bhiriyoni yegore rose. Mwedzi wapera, akaburitsa pachena kuti akaendesa $78 bhiriyoni mumari kuUS Treasury muna Nyamavhuvhu, chinodiwa kubva kuFederal Reserve.
Mari idzi dzakatanga kuita kurasikirwa munaGunyana uye dzakamiswa. Iyo Fed inoteedzera kurasikirwa uku pavhiki nevhiki muakaundi inonzi Transfers of Revenue kuUS Treasury.
Asi usanetseka. Iyo Federal Reserve inogadzira mari yayo, haimbopererwe nemari, haife yakabhuroka, uye zvekuita nekurasikirwa ikoko inyaya ye accounting. Izvi zvinogona kutenderedzwa nekubata kurasikirwa sechinhu chakamisikidzwa uye kuchiisa muakaundi yemhosva "Kuendeswa kwemari inobhadharwa kuUS Treasury".
Nekuti iyo yekurasikirwa account account yakapetwa, iyo capital capital account yakaramba isina kuchinjika ingangoita $41 bhiriyoni. Mune mamwe mazwi, kurasikirwa hakubvisi guru reFed.
Kuda kuverenga WOLF STREET uye unoda kuitsigira? Unogona kupa. ndinotenda. Dzvanya Beer & Iced Tea Mugs kuti udzidze maitiro:
Saka, inenge $3.5 trillion. Kutaura zvazviri, handirevi kuti ndiite seanotsvinya kana kutsvinya. Vakapfuura zvandaitarisira zvine mwero gore rapfuura.
Zvakawanda, iyo yakazara "asset" chati inonyatso kureva chero chinhu chakafanana nesimba kana kutonga pamusoro pehupfumi hweUS kana zviitiko?
Kugadzira inflation (chiyero che "mari" kune pfuma chaiyo) "kupora" njodzi yapfuura (uye inotevedzana) haisi maitiro ekubudirira, asi nhoroondo yehutano.
Zvaunotarisira zvishoma. Sezvo musika wemasheya uchidzora yakawanda yekurasikirwa kwawo uye ukava bhavhu hombe zvakare, ungafunga kuti vangada kucheka mashiti avo ekuenzanisa nekukurumidza, asi ndinofunga dambudziko riri pano nderekuti havagone kurasa zvikero zvavo vasina kutora kurasikirwa. tafura kurasikirwa. Naizvozvo, Fed inofanira kutanga yamisa kukwira kwemitengo uye kudzikisa mubereko, yobva yabvisa bharanzi nekukurumidza.
Dzidziso yangu ndeyokuti Fed inoda kukwidza mitengo kuti ibvise kukwira kwemitengo nokuti inokanganisa hupfumi chaihwo, asi haidi kutengesa zvinhu nokuti ichabvisa rubatsiro rwemusika, izvo zvinokuvadza shamwari dzavo dzose dzakapfuma muhomwe dzavo. Mushure mezvose, Fed inongova boka remabhangi. Havana hanya nemumwe munhu asi ivo pachavo.
Ini handibvumirane nedzidziso yako, zvirinani mune yayo inogutsa chimiro, asi inopa inonakidza puzzle. Kungofanana nekasino, kasino inofanirwa kubvumira mutambi kuti agamuchire kukosha. Imba ine mukana wekutora kukosha kwese, asi mutambo wapera. Kwandiri, Fed haina udyire husina tsitsi seboka revabhangi. Senge pasina munhu asiri mukirabhu, ndakabatsirwa zvakanyanya nehurongwa uhu hwechikwereti nemari, kunyangwe makumi emakore uye mamiriro ezvinhu.
Quantitative tightening (QT) yeMBS inononoka zvekuti inobvumira kurudziro isina kunanga sezvo mari inobata MBS inogona kupa zvikwereti zvemahara kana kutenga chaiko.
Uku hakusi "kukurudzira zvisina kunanga". Inongodhonza zvishoma nezvishoma. Asi ichiri kudhonza.
Munhu wese anoita kunge ari kutsvaga chikonzero chekurasikirwa nemari mumusika webheya. Ino ndiyo nguva yekuverenga zvakare Memoirs yeStock Manipulator pasi pezita rekunyepedzera raEdwin Lefevre, anove ari Jesse Livermore, muongorori. Hapana chakachinja. Musika wemari wakangofanana.
Ikozvino ndiri kuona murwi wemari yegoridhe, foshoro nekombi yakanyorwa padivi kuti “Harry Houndstooth Hauling Company”.
Zvisina hanya kupfupisa musika. Iyi ndiyo rebound yatanga takamirira uye yave nguva yekutsika gasi.
SQQQ yakakwira, SRTY yakakwira, uye SPXU neSDOW pakupedzisira vakaziva (sezvo Wile E. Coyote akadonha kubva pamawere) kuti pamberi pedu pakanga pane kuwa kukuru.
Kutengeserana kwealgorithmic kwave kuomesesa, nekugona kutevedza marefu uye mapfupi kumira. Vanoshandisa trailing kutengesa uye kutenga kunoitika nekumhanya kwechiedza kuti vaone kwavanogona kutora musika, zvichikonzera kurwadziwa kwakanyanya kune avhareji investor. Semuyenzaniso, kumisa kurasikirwa pazvishoma masheya emakambani akabhuroka, achimhanya avhareji yega yega inofamba, Fibonacci, vhoriyamu yakayerwa pakati, etc. Vanhu vane aya algorithmic kutengeserana mashandiro iboka revakuru uye pane mukana wehumwe uye kudyidzana kwevazhinji musika wemasheya. Ichi ndicho chimwe chezvikonzero nei musika webheya uchigara kwenguva yakareba. Iyo Fed yakashata. iyo chengetedzo haina kuwana kune imwe mhando yesoftware yakavimbika iyo inofunga nezvese shanduko dzehupfumi (sepamusoro) kuverenga nhamba dzeakasiyana-siyana ekuisa / nguva yenguva kuitira kuti vazadzise zvinangwa zvavo - taura 2% inflation. Algorithms inogona kuparara mushure megore ichiedza kunzwisisa kuti unozviita sei
Hapana nzvimbo yakareba kana pfupi. Bata chinzvimbo chegoridhe asi utengese nekukurumidza musi waZvita 28, 2022. Dai ndaive mupfupi, ndingadai ndakatumira izvi seyambiro kune vatengesi vapfupi.
Ndinotarisira kuti US CPI ichave yakakwira zvishoma muna Ndira kupfuura muna Zvita. MuCanada, CPI yakanga yakakwirira zvikuru muna Ndira kupfuura muna Zvita. Sezvo nhamba dzeCPI dziri kukwira mwedzi nemwedzi, ndingadai ndakava nezvigaro zvipfupi zvikuru mukutanga kwaJanuary kana kuti ndingadai ndakaurayiwa.
Ndinobvuma chose. kuda bhuku iri. Mushure mekutengesa sarudzo dzese dzeTesla muna Zvita, ndakatotenga mashoma Tesla sarudzo ndichitarisira rally. Zvino tenga iyo Gunyana / Ndira inoisa zvakare - Nvidia, Apple, Msft, etc. Ngativimbei kuti chikamu chinotevera chakapinza uye chakareba semamwe misika yemabheya.
“Ndakatengesa zvose zvandaigona. Ipapo migove yakakwira zvakare, kusvika padanho repamusoro. Zvakandichenesa. Ndakanga ndakarurama uye ndisina kururama.
Nenzira, Edwin Lefebvre munyori chaiye uye munyori wenhau. Akabvunzurudza Jesse Livermore uye akanyora bhuku iri maererano nebvunzurudzo iyoyo. Livermore anewo bhuku raakanyora ega, asi handichayeuki musoro wacho zvino. Zvechokwadi haasi munyori ane unyanzvi, uye zvinoratidza.
Ndakanzwa imwe hurukuro, kusanganisira kubva kuna Lacey Hunt, inoita kunge inoratidza kuti izvi ndizvo zvazviri.
handizvidi. Mabhangi parizvino ari kuyedza kukwezva mamwe madhipoziti uye kuwedzera zvipiriso zvavo, kunyanya nekutengesa zvitupa zvebrokerage kune vatengi vatsva pane kupa mazinga akakwira kune vatengi varipo (vachiri kubhadhara mutero wekuvimbika). Mabhanga ave nenguva yakawanda yekukwidza rudzi urwu rwemari yeholesale, uye vari kuzviita. Pandinotarisa paCD yebrokerage yechigadzirwa, ndinoiona muakaundi yangu yebrokerage ine mubereko we4.5% kusvika 5%. Mabhanga ave kutsvanzvadzira madhipoziti. Kune mari yakawanda mumari yemusika wemari, uye kana mabhanga akapa mazinga akakwirira, anomanikidza imwe yemari kubva kumari yemusika wemari kuenda kumaCD uye maakaundi ekuchengetedza. Mabhangi haadi kuita izvi nekuti inowedzera mutengo wemari uye inoisa kudzvanywa pamiganhu yavo, asi vanozviita.
"Isu tichiri kumirira chero chiratidzo kubva kuFed kuti iri kufunga zvakadzama kutengeswa kweMBS kuti iwedzere rollover kusvika ku35 bhiriyoni pamwedzi. Pamutengo wazvino uno, ichafanirwa kutengesa pakati pemabhiriyoni gumi nemashanu emadhora nemabhiriyoni makumi maviri emadhora pamwedzi. magavhuna akawanda eFed akataura kuti Fed inogona kupedzisira yaenda nenzira iyoyo. "
Sezvandinozvidza Pow Pow, ndichazvipa chikwereti kana vakakwanisa kuitanga. Tinovimba kuti izvi zvechokwadi zvichave nemhedzisiro pakuderera kwemitengo yemba uye nekumhanyisa nhanho iripo yekuderera kwemutengo. Mubvunzo ndewokuti sei vakamirira kwenguva yakareba kuti vatange? Ko iyo Fed haina kukwanisa kutanga kutengesa MBS, pamwe muhuwandu hudiki, panguva imwe chete QT inotanga? Ndinoziva kuti vanoirega ichimhanya, asi kana vasingadi chaizvo kuva neMBS mumabhuku avo, unogona kufunga kusimudzira + kutengesa panguva imwe chete ingave mhinduro yakanaka.
Phoenix_Ikki, zvakandiomera kuti ndizive kuti yakawanda sei MBS iyo Fed yaive isati ya2006-2009. Iyo Fed ine chero zvinhu here? Kana iyo Fed isina kumbobvira yave neMBS munguva yakapfuura uye musika wemortgage wakawedzera, nei kutengeswa kweFed kweMBS yayo iko zvino kuve nemhedzisiro yakaipa pamitengo yembangi uye musika wedzimba?
Vanoda chikwereti cheimba kune chikwereti chisina kurairwa. Vakatengawo makambani / junk bond, kunyangwe mune zvidiki, izvo zvakare zvakawira kunze kwechikamu chemutemo. Haisi zvakare "kumiswa kwemkt kune mkt accounting zviyero."
Nguva yekutumira: Feb-28-2023